Texas Hill Country has 13 major rivers that run through it or start flowing from it. One of these major rivers includes the Guadalupe River, which rises from two forks in western Kerr County. The river’s North and South Fork converge, allowing the river to then flow southeast 230 miles, passing through Kerr, Kendall, Comal, Guadalupe, Gonzales, DeWitt, and Victoria counties (Elizabeth Smyrl). The Guadalupe River provides the people with drinking and agricultural water, and supports a vibrant recreation and tourism industry. It is a popular destination for canoeing, swimming, fishing, and tubing, and is now a tourist attraction as Guadalupe River State Park (“Guadalupe River State Park”). Ron Duke, an 80-year-old, had told CNN that he and his friends loved to kayak along the Guadalupe River and enjoy its banks. For generations, this river has been the cornerstone of communities, including Kerr and Kendall counties, connecting the people to nature. (Ebrahimji, et al.). This river also has historical significance, for it was named “Nuestra Señora de Guadalupe” by an early Spanish explorer, Alonso De León, in 1689. On that day, De León, as the Spanish governor of Coahuila, settled on the banks of Garcitas Creek of the ruins of French settlement, and discovered the river and the future site of Victoria (“Coahuila governor discovers Guadalupe”).
Although the Guadalupe River may seem friendly, it is prone to deadly flooding, frequently experiencing rainfall that increases the river levels at an exceptionally high rate. The river’s flooding capacity is also fueled by periods of drought that precede it, hardening the ground and lessening its capacity to absorb water. Areas that are prone to flash flooding are mountainous streams, urban areas, low-lying areas, storm drains, culverts, and rivers. The topography of the Guadalupe River is characterized by the steep, hilly, rugged terrains of Texas Hill Country, with limestone hills that cause rapid runoff (“NOAA Satellites Inform Warning for the Texas Hill Country Floods”). This rapid shift, also called a “weather whiplash”, increased runoff and amplified the damage of the storm (AccuWeather).
“August 1-4, 1978 Flood”
The 1978 flood of the Guadalupe River was a forgotten but significant event, perhaps even foreshadowing the flood on July 4, 2025. Meteorologists claimed that this flood was “catastrophic”, which began when the remnants of the tropical storm Amelia, originating from Africa, moved across the Gulf of Mexico and into Texas on July 30th. During this flood, the National Guard was mobilized and Army helicopters filled the sky. The banks of the Guadalupe River were scattered with toppled trees and overturned cars. The Associate Press claimed that Kerrville “resembled a war zone.” (Marc) The records for rainfall and river levels were shattered between August 1-4th, 1978, leading to the death of 25 people in the Hill Country and destroying hundreds of homes. After laying waste to the ranches, crops, and livestock of Central Texas, the storm moved on to the Abilene Area, causing 8 more deaths. As storm cells accumulated, the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explained, “These new cells grew rapidly in size and intensity and moved very slowly through Bandera, Kerr, Gillespie and Kendall counties, producing torrential rain in the early morning hours of Wednesday, August 2.” During the second downpour of precipitation, Manatt Ranch, 11 miles northwest of the town of Medina, was filled up to 31 inches; Downtown Bandera was flooded; and the volume of water in Medina Lake increased by 50% (USGS-NOAA). 11 inches of rain fell on the Guadalupe River, increasing its water levels by 10 feet in one hour. The storm did not rest and continued on to the Big Country, where certain areas of Shackelford County got more than 25 inches of rain in two days and Abilene, an area three miles west, received 32.5 inches. Watch a video of an interview of an Army National Guard captain about the flood at: https://texasarchive.org/2013_02510
“July 16-17, 1987 Flood”
In the late evening of July 16th and into the morning of July 17th, thunderstorms developed, slowly moving eastward towards the Texas Hill Country region. A large area of 5-10 inches of rain fell on the upper headwaters of the Guadalupe River basin. Around 11 inches of rain occurred 9 miles west of Hunt, Texas, causing a deadly flood wave that traveled through the Guadalupe River to Ingram, Kerrville, and Comfort in the early hours of the 17th of July (“1987 Guadalupe River Flood”). The river levels at Comfort rose 29 feet, then cresting at 31.5 feet, being the ninth highest crest recorded in history. During the storm, hundreds of residents along the Guadalupe River and its tributaries were forced to evacuate. Unfortunately, ten teenagers lost their lives and 33 others were injured when a bus and a van were leaving a church camp, known as the “Seagoville Road Baptist Church/Balch Springs Christian Academy Bus and Van Tragedy”. A week preceding the 1987 flood, more than 300 children from various churches were attending a church camp at the Pot O’ Gold Ranch, located two miles southwest of Comfort, Texas. After law enforcement officials notified the camp at 2 and 6 AM, a decision was made to evacuate the children early to prevent being trapped at the camp, although the camp was intended to end in the evening of July 17th. Around 7:45 AM, a caravan of buses and vans left the camp, then encountered a flooded low water crossing on the Guadalupe River. The lead buses decided to take an alternative route, making a successful sharp turn to head towards a different direction. However, the rapidly rising river levels that escaped the banks and the backwash from the convoy caused the last bus to be stalled and the van behind it to become stranded. They made an attempt to evacuate to the nearest dry land, which was around half a mile away, but the human chain they tried to form was scattered by the water. 39 teenagers and 4 adults were swept into the flood waters. 10 of the teenagers tragically drowned (“1987 Guadalupe River Flood”). The remaining 33 children and adults were rescued by a series of dramatic helicopter rescues.
“June 30 – July 7, 2002 Flood”
An eyewitness of the 2002 flood had testified over 20 years after the storm: “On July 4, 2002, my childhood home just south of Kerr County flooded after a heavy rainstorm moved through the Texas Hill Country, hitting the headwaters that feed the Medina and Guadalupe rivers hard. That morning 23 years ago, I, age 8, woke up in a cabin at an overnight summer camp near Kerrville rattled but safe after a night of timber-shaking thunder and rain, not knowing that 20 miles away my mother and brother were taking refuge in the attic of our home as the waters rose around them.” (Hill) When the storm hit, people claimed that “flash floods have long haunted the Texas Hill Country”. (Garcia-Buckalew, “Flash Floods Have Long Haunted the Texas Hill Country”). By itself, June 2002 was a month of extreme precipitation that began with dry weather and ended with severe flooding. Kerrville recorded 19 inches of rain, making it the wettest month of the city since August 1978. Between Kerrville, Center Point and Comfort, around 40-50 inches of precipitation was reported. The flood caused at least 12 deaths in Kendall County, which was the central area of the flooding, and at least 4 deaths in San Antonio. The flood caused widespread damage, impacting approximately 48,000 homes. Many who have rebuilt their homes were devastated to see the houses flowing across the Guadalupe River. A year after the 2002 flood, San Antonio launched its “Turn Around, Don’t Drown” campaign, proposing ideas of charging fines and rescue fees, to discourage drivers from attempting to pass through flooded roadways (Fanning). See here to see the flash flood related fatalities in 2002: https://www.weather.gov/media/hazstat/flood02.pdf
“July 4, 2025 Flood”
On the morning of July 4, 2025, a deadly flash flood occurred in Texas Hill Country. The water levels of the river rose rapidly, killing 135 people, 117 of whom were residents of Kerr County. Flash floods are caused by storms that move slowly from one area to another. Areas most prone to flash flooding are “mountainous streams, urban areas, low-lying areas, storm drains, culverts, and rivers (“NOAA Satellites Inform Warning for the Texas Hill Country Floods”). The topography of the Guadalupe River is characterized by the “steep, hilly, rugged terrain of Texas Hill Country”, contributing to its variation in depth (Jacobo, et al.). The flood was caused by a mesoscale convective vortex, also known as a mesovortex, combined with moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, a short-lived tropical cyclone that caused significant flooding in southeastern Mexico. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is a center with low pressure in a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that pulls wind into a circling pattern or vortex. The MCS, according to the Dictionary of Weather published by Oxford University Press, is “a large convective system characterized by deep convective clouds, various associated stratiform clouds, heavy precipitation, and a vigorous circulation. The overall lifetime of such a system exceeds four hours, much longer than that of a normal, individual cumulonimbus cell.”
The flooding began on July 4th, when six flash flood emergencies were reported, including in the cities of Kerrville and Mason. The Guadalupe River’s river levels rose 26 feet in 45 minutes, surging 29 feet in the Hunt area, where more than 20 children were declared missing from a summer camp. On July 5th, more flash flood warnings were issued around the Lake Travis area, making this flood the deadliest inland flooding in the United States since the 1976 Big Thompson River Flood. Just in the span of a few hours, around four months worth of rain fell across the Texas Hill Country, with the rain totals reaching 20.33 inches. After the storm, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed a disaster declaration for many counties in the Hill Country region and requested federal assistance for the affected areas. President Donald Trump later signed a federal disaster declaration for Kerr County to make public assistance programs available (Sommer). The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) administered the National Flood Insurance Program, which defines the “floodplain” as the area that would be flooded by a base flood which “has a one percent chance of being equaled or exceeded in any given year”, also known as the 100-year flood.
“Supposed safety measures, improvements”: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS), plays the center role in issuing watches and warnings for incoming storms and floods. An office of the NOAA, the Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) provides data and information to NWS to detect occurring storms and potential floodings. STAR’s Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MiRS) data is obtained from six satellites, including NOAA-20 and 21 (“NOAA Satellites Inform Warning for the Texas Hill Country Floods”). The MiRS has also displayed a Typhoon Soudelor imagery that struck Taiwan and Mainland China on August 6, 2015 (“Center for Satellite Applications and Research – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR”).
These flash floods of the Guadalupe River and nearby counties have left a wound in the communities of the residents. People constantly ask themselves tough questions: Were we ready? Could we have prevented this many fatalities? How could we be on the look out for future storms? Despite the constant encouragement of different safety measures, the flash floods always seem to come back differently each time, but result in the same deadliness that takes the survivors’ loved ones. A blog about the July 4th, 2025 flood and its effects says: “The disaster did highlight some serious weak spots in how ready we were, our infrastructure, and how we responded in the emergency. But – it also showed just how incredibly resilient our community is. Think about this: in just a few weeks, the number of missing people went from a heartbreaking 160 down to only three. That’s a real testament to the strength and determination of everyone involved.” (“Kerrville and the Guadalupe River Flooding of July 4, 2025”)
Works Cited
“1987 Guadalupe River Flood.” Weather.gov, 2025, www.weather.gov/ewx/wxevent-19870717.
AccuWeather. “What Caused the Deadly Flooding in Central Texas?” YouTube, 6 July 2025, www.youtube.com/watch?v=z61N20YTrDc.
“Alonso de León and the Discovery of the Guadalupe River.” Texas State Historical Association, 2025, www.tshaonline.org/texas-day-by-day/entry/323.
“Center for Satellite Applications and Research – NOAA / NESDIS / STAR.” NOAA / NESDIS / STAR Website, 2015, www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/mirs/.
Duvoisin, Marc. “A Forgotten 1978 Storm Foreshadowed Texas’ Deadly July 4 Flood.” San Antonio Express-News, 12 July 2025, www.expressnews.com/news/article/texas-1978-storm-lessons-2025-camp-mystic-flood-20766855.php.
Ebrahimji, Alisha, and Michelle Krupa. “The Guadalupe River Long Has Been a Haven of Adventure and Joy. After Deadly Flooding, It’s a Source of Grief with an Uncertain Future.” CNN, 9 July 2025, www.cnn.com/2025/07/09/us/guadalupe-river-texas-flooding-future.
Elizabeth Smyrl, Vivian . “TSHA | Guadalupe River.” Www.tshaonline.org, 1952, www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/guadalupe-river.
Fanning, Timothy. “20 Years Ago, Flood Brought Death and Devastation to San Antonio Area.” San Antonio Express-News, 6 June 2022, www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/2002-flood-anniversary-san-antonio-17287600.php.
Garcia-Buckalew, Bob. “Flash Floods Have Long Haunted the Texas Hill Country.” Kvue.com, KVUE, 5 July 2025, www.kvue.com/article/news/history/flash-floods-texas-hill-country-guadalupe-river-history/269-aa40ee53-fab5-4ad6-8943-e5b089282399.
—. “Remembering the 1987 Guadalupe River Flash Flood That Killed 10 after Raging through a Hill Country Summer Camp.” Kvue.com, KVUE, 4 July 2025, www.kvue.com/article/news/history/guadalupe-river-flash-flood-teens-killed-1987-comfort-texas/269-e92dd375-b461-4ce7-8723-188a9de6a03a.
Hill, Chaney. “I Remember the 2002 Fourth of July Hill Country Floods. This Year, the Water Returned.” The Texas Observer, 8 July 2025, www.texasobserver.org/hill-country-flood-family-home-fourth-of-july-2002/.
Jacobo, Julia, et al. “These Are the Factors That Contributed to the Extreme Texas Flooding.” ABC News, 7 July 2025, abcnews.go.com/US/factors-contributed-extreme-texas-flooding/story?id=123531903.
“Kerrville and the Guadalupe River Flooding of July 4, 2025.” Cowboys and Angels, 20 June 2025, www.cowboysandangelsretreat.com/guadalupe-river-flooding/.
“NOAA Satellites Inform Warning for the Texas Hill Country Floods.” National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, 30 Sept. 2025, www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/noaa-satellites-inform-warning-the-texas-hill-country-floods.
Sommer, Lauren. “Kerr County Struggled to Fund Flood Warnings. Under Trump, It’s Getting Even Harder.” NPR, 10 July 2025, www.npr.org/2025/07/10/nx-s1-5461091/texas-flooding-warning-system-fema.
“Texas Hill Country Flooding (1978) – Jim Ruddy Collection.” The Film and Video Archive of Texas, 2025, texasarchive.org/2013_02510.
U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1882. U.S. Government Printing Office. https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1332/report.pdf.